Seasonal Hurricane Predictions release initial 2017 forecasts

10 May 2017

With the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season approaching on June 1, seasonalhurricanepredictions.org has collated its initial 2017 forecasts. Run by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University in association with XL Catlin, the website is the first to aggregate forecasts from nearly 20 major centers that specialise in Atlantic hurricane forecasting.

Current forecasts are generally predicting near-normal hurricane activity, with seasonal forecasts predicting a total of five hurricanes on average. None of the seasonal forecasting groups are currently predicting well above-average Atlantic hurricane activity.

However, there is significant uncertainty about the potential development of an El Niño by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. There are some indications this could occur, with several forecast models calling for weak to moderate El Niño conditions by September. However, other models are predicting neutral conditions. El Niño conditions are generally unfavourable to hurricane development.

There is still a considerable amount of time before the hurricane season reaches its busiest in August, and consequently, significant alterations in seasonal forecasts are possible. The website will be regularly updated as additional forecasts are published.

The Seasonal Hurricane Predictions website was launched in August 2016, aiming to improve understanding about hurricane variability among the scientific community and the general public. Last year´s forecast correctly predicted the total number of storms (15) while slightly over-forecasting the total number of hurricanes (8 predicted, 7 formed) and under-forecasting the total number of major hurricanes (3 predicted, 4 formed).

About Barcelona Supercomputing Center

Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) is the national supercomputing center in Spain. BSC specializes in high performance computing (HPC), and its mission is two-fold: to provide infrastructure and supercomputing services to European scientists, and to generate knowledge and technology to transfer to business and society.

BSC is a Severo Ochoa Center of Excellence and a first level hosting member of the European research infrastructure PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe). BSC also manages the Spanish Supercomputing Network (RES).

BSC is a consortium that includes Spanish Government, Catalan Government and Technical University of Catalonia – Barcelona Tech.

About Colorado State University

Colorado State University is a public research university located in Fort Collins, Colorado. The Tropical Meteorology Project, founded by the late Dr William Gray, in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU, pioneered seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin. CSU began issuing predictions in 1984 and has issued annual predictions continuously since that time.

About XL Catlin

XL Catlin is the global brand used by XL Group Ltd’s (NYSE:XL) insurance and reinsurance companies which provide property, casualty, professional and specialty products to industrial, commercial and professional firms, insurance companies and other enterprises throughout the world. Clients look to XL Catlin for answers to their most complex risks and to help move their world forward. To learn more, visit xlcatlin.com.

Nota en castellano (pdf)