Pablo Ortega

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I am a climate scientist with a broad range of interests, including paleoclimatology, ocean dynamics, climate prediction and feedbacks. My research motto is to study the past to learn for the future, and have a strong interest on the fate of the ocean circulation, its predictability and impacts.
I currently co-lead, together with Markus Donat, the Climate Variability and Change group of the Earth Science Department




  1. Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, J. Robson, A. Teles-Machado, P. Ortega "A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content", Earth Syst. Dynam. Disc. [preprint],  2024, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1569.


  1. Donat M., R. Mahmood, J. Cos, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes "Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations", Environmental Research Climate, 2024, Accepted.
  2. Bilbao R., P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, P. Athanasiadis, R. Eade, M. Devilliers, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, A.-C. Ho, W. Merryfield, J. Mignot, D. Nicolì, M. Samsó, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, X. Wu, S. Yeager "Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysis", Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 501–525, 2024, doi:10.5194/esd-15-501-2024.
  3. Steenbeek J., P. Ortega, R. Bernardello, V. Christensen, M. Coll, E. Exarchou, A. Fuster, R. Heneghan L Julià, M.G. Pennino, D. Rivas Camargo, N. S. Keenlyside "Making ecosystem modelling operational - a novel distributed execution framework to systematically explore ecological responses to divergent climate trajectories", Earth's Future, 12, e2023EF004295, 2024, doi:10.1029/2023EF004295.
  4. Martín-Gómez V., Y. Ruprich-Robert, E. Tourigny, R. Bernardello, P. Ortega , M. Donat, M. Samsó Cabré  "Large spread in interannual Variance of atmospheric CO2 concentration across CMIP6 Earth System Models", NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 206, 2023, doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00532-x.
  5. Polkova I., D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, D. Smith, J. Kröger, I. Bethke, X. Yang, L. Zhang, D. Nicolì, P. J. Athanasiadis, P. Karami, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, B. Wu, R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, S. Yang, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, W. Merryfield, T. Kataoka, H. Tatebe, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, R. J. Matear "Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre", Frontiers in Climate, 5, 2023, doi:10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770.
  6. Donat, M.G., C. Delgado-Torres, P. De Luca, R. Mahmood, P. Ortega and F.J. Doblas-Reyes "How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes?",  Geophysical Research Letters50, e2022GL102466, 2023, doi:10.1029/2022GL102466.
  7. Mahmood, R., M.G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, C. Delgado-Torres, M. Samsó and P.-A. Bretonnière "Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal time scales - a ‘poor-man’ initialized prediction system", Earth System Dynamics, 13, 1437–1450, 2022, doi:10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022.
  8. Michel, S., D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, P. Ortega, G. Gastineau, G.McCarthy, M. Khodri "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction", Nature Communications, 13, 5176, 2022, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3.
  9. Ortega, P., E.W. Blockley, M. Køltzow, F. Massonnet, I. Sandu, G. Svensson, J.C. Acosta Navarro, G. Arduini, L. Batté, E. Bazile, M. Chevallier, R. Cruz-García, J.J. Day, T. Fichefet, D. Flocco, M. Gupta, K. Hartung, E. Hawkins, C. Hinrichs, L. Magnusson, E. Moreno-Chamarro, S. Pérez-Montero, L. Ponsoni, T. Semmler, D. Smith, J. Sterlin, M. Tjernström, I. Välisuo and T. Jung "Improving Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction: recommendations for future forecast systems evolution from the European project APPLICATE", BAMS, 103, E2203-E2213, 2022, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0083.1.
  10. Simon, A., G. Gastineau, C. Frankignoul, V. Lapin and P. Ortega "Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in winter", Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions, 3, 845–861, 2022, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-69
  11. ​Acosta Navarro, J.C., J. García-Serrano,V. Lapin and P. Ortega "Added value of assimilating springtime Arctic sea ice concentration in summer-fall climate predictions", Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 064008, 2022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c9b.
  12. ​Döscher, R., M. Acosta, A. Alessandri, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, T. Arsouze, T. Bergmann, R. Bernadello, S. Bousetta, L.-P. Caron, G. Carver, M. Castrillo, F. Catalano, I. Cvijanovic, P. Davini, E. Dekker, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, D. Docquier, P. Echevarria, U. Fladrich, R. Fuentes-Franco, M. Gröger, J. v. Hardenberg, J. Hieronymus, M. P. Karami, J.-P. Keskinen, T. Koenigk, R. Makkonen, F. Massonnet, M. Ménégoz, P. A. Miller, E. Moreno-Chamarro, L. Nieradzik, T. van Noije, P. Nolan, D. O’Donnell, P. Ollinaho, G. van den Oord, P. Ortega, O. Tintó-Prims, A. Ramos, T. Reerink, C. Rousset, Y. Ruprich-Robert, P. Le Sager, T. Schmith, R. Schrödner, F. Serva, V. Sicardi, M. Sloth Madsen, B. Smith, T. Tian, E. Tourigny, P. Uotila, M. Vancoppenolle, S. Wang, D. Wårlind, U. Willén, K. Wyser, S. Yang, X. Yepes-Arbós,  and Q. Zhang "The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6", Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, 2022, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022.
  13. Pelletier, C., T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, K. Haubner, S. Helsen, P.-V. Huot, C. Kittel, F. Klein, S. Le clec'h, N. P. M. van Lipzig, S. Marchi, F. Massonnet, P. Mathiot, E. Moravveji, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, F. Pattyn, N. Souverijns, G. Van Achter, S. Vanden Broucke, A. Vanhulle, D. Verfaillie and L. Zipf "PARASO, a circum-Antarctic fully-coupled ice-sheet - ocean - sea-ice - atmosphere - land model involving f.ETISh1.7, NEMO3.6, LIM3.6, COSMO5.0 and CLM4.5", Geoscience Model Development, 15, 553–594, 2022, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022.
  14. Kilbourne, H., A. Wanamaker, P. Moffa-Sanchez, D. Reynolds, D. Amrhein, P. Butler, G. Gebbie, M. Goes, M. Jansen, C. Little, M. Mette, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, B. Otto-Bliesner, T. Rossby, J. Scourse and N. Whitney "Atlantic circulation change still uncertain", Nature Geoscience, 15, 165–167,  2022, doi:10.1038/s41561-022-00896-4.
  15. Langehaug, H.R., P. Ortega, F. Counillon, D. Matei, E. Maroon, N. Keenlyside, J. Mignot, Y. Wang, D. Swingedouw, I. Bethke, S. Yang, G. Danabasoglu, A. Bellucci, P. Ruggieri, D. Nicolì and M. Årthun "Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential  along the Atlantic water pathway", Journal of Climate, 35, 2111–2131, 2022, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1.
  16. Smith D., R. Eade, M. Andrews, H. Ayres, A. Clark, S. Chripko, C. Deser, N. Dunstone, J. Garcia-Serrano, G. Gastineau, L. S. Graff, S. C. Hardiman, B. He, L. Hermanson,  T. Jung, J. Knight, X. Levine, G. Magnusdottir, E. Manzini, D. Matei, M. Mori, R.  Msadek, P. Ortega, Y. Peings, A. A. Scaife, J. A. Screen, M. Seabrook, T. Semmler  M. Sigmond, J. Streffing, L. Sun and A. Walsh "Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss", Nature Communications, 13, 727, 2022, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y.
  17. Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado, and E. Dutra "Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model", Clim. Dyn., 58, 1311–1328 ​, 2022, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y.
  18. Mahmood R., M.G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and Y. Ruprich-Robert "Constraining decadal variability yields skillful projections of near-term climate change", Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094915, 2021, doi:10.1029/2021GL094915.
  19. Sandu, I., F. Massonnet, G. van Achter, J. Acosta Navarro, G. Arduini, P. Bauer, E. BlockleyN. BormannM. ChevallierJ. DayM. DahouiT.. FichefetD. FloccoT. JungE. HawkinsS. LarocheH. Lawrence, J. KristianssenE. Moreno-ChamarroP. OrtegaE. PoanL. Ponsoni,  and R. Randriamampianina  "The potential of numerical prediction systems to support the design of Arctic observing systems: Insights from the APPLICATE and YOPP projects", QJRMS, 147, 3863-3877, 2021, doi:10.1002/qj.4182.
  20. Volpi, D., V. L. Meccia, V. Guemas, P. Ortega, R. Bilbao, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Amaral, P. Echevarria, R. Mahmood, and S. Corti "A novel initialisation technique for decadal climate predictions", Front. Clim., 3, 681127, 2021, doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.681127.
  21. Koenigk, T., R. Fuentes-Franco, V.L. Meccia, O. Gutjahr, L.C. Jackson, A.L. New, P. Ortega, C. Roberts, M. Roberts, T. Arsouze, D.  Iovino, M.-P. Moine, and D.V. Sein "Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models", Clim. Dyn., 571895-1918, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05785-x.
  22. Levine, X., I. Cvijanovic, P. Ortega, M. Donat, and E. Tourigny "Atmospheric feedback explains disparate climate response to regional Arctic sea ice loss", NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4, 28, 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00183-w.
  23. Moreno-Chamarro, E., L.-P. Caron, P. Ortega, S. Loosveldt-Tomas,  and M.J. Roberts "Can we trust CMIP5/6 future projections of European winter precipitation?", Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 054063, 2021, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abf28a.
  24. Exarchou, E., P. Ortega, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, T. Losada, I. Polo and C. Prodhomme "Impact of Equatorial Atlantic Variability on ENSO Predictive Skill", Nature Communications, 12, 1612, 2021, doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2.
  25. Ortega, P., J.I. Robson, M. Menary, R.T. Sutton, A. Blaker, A. Germe, J.J.-M. Hirschi, B. Sinha, L. Hermanson and S. Yeager "Labrador Sea sub-surface density as a precursor of multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study", Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438, 2021, doi:10.5194/esd-2020-83.
  26. Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor "Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth", Earth Syst. Dynam.,12, 173–196, 2021, doi:10.5194/esd-12-173-2021.
  27. Cruz-García, R., P. Ortega, V. Guemas, J. Acosta-Navarro, F. Massonnet and F. Doblas-Reyes "An anatomy of Arctic sea ice forecast biases in the seasonal prediction system with EC-Earth", Clim. Dyn. 56, 1799–1813, 2021, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05560-4.
  28. Moreno-Chamarro, E., P. Ortega and F. Massonnet "Impact of the ice thickness distribution discretization on the sea ice concentration variability in the NEMO3.6-LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model", Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4773–4787, 2020, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020.
  29. Roberts, M.J., L.C. Jackson, C.D. Roberts, V. Meccia, D. Docquier, T. Koenigk, P. Ortega, E. Moreno-Chamarro, A. Bellucci, A. Coward, S. Drijfhout, E. Exarchou, O. Gutjahr, H. Hewitt, D. Iovino, K. Lohmann, D. Putrasahan, R. Schiemann, J. Seddon, L. Terray, X. Xu, Q. Zhang, P. Chang, S.G. Yeager, F.S. Castruccio, S Zhang and L. Wu "Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Model Resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations and Implications for Future Changes", Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12, e2019MS002014, 2020, doi:10.1029/2019MS002014.
  30. Hernández A., C. Martin-Puertas, P. Moffa-Sánchez, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, S. Blockley, K.M. Cobb, L. Comas-Bru, S. Giralt, H. Goosse, J. Luterbacher, B. Martrat, R. Muscheler, A. Parnell, S. Pla-Rabes, J. Sjolte, A.A. Scaife, D. Swingedouw, E. Wise and  G. Xu "Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene", Earth-Science Reviews 208103286, 2020, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286.
  31. Batté L., I. Välisuo, M. Chevallier, J.C. Acosta-Navarro, P. Ortega and D. Smith "Summer predictions of Arctic sea ice edge in multi-model seasonal re-forecasts", Climate Dynamics 54, 5013–5029, 2020, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05273-8.
  32. Smith D., A.A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L.F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, N.J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W.J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W.A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. Pohlmann, J. Robson, P. Ruggieri, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, D. Swingedouw, Y. Wang, S. Wild, S. Yeager, X. Yang and L. Zhang "North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply", Nature 583, 7968002020, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0
  33. Hermanson L., R. Bilbao, N. Dunstone, M. Ménégoz, P. Ortega, H. Pohlmann, J. Robson, D. Smith, G. Strand, C. Timmreck, S. Yeager and G. Danabasoglu "Robust multi-year climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction system", Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres 125, e2019JD031739, 2020, doi: 10.1029/2019JD031739
  34. Michel S., D. Swingedouw, M. Chavent, P. Ortega, J. Mignot and M. Khodri "Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records: sensitivity to the methodological approach", Geoscientific Model Development 13,  841–858, 2020, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020
  35. Acosta-Navarro J.C., P. Ortega, L. Batté, D. Smith, P.A. Bretonnière, V. Guemas, F. Massonnet, V. Sicardi, V. Torralba,  E. Tourigny and  F.J. Doblas-Reyes "Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill", Geophysical Research Letters 47, e2019GL086753, 2020, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086753.
  36. Moat B., B. Sinha, S.A. Josey, J. Robson, P. Ortega, F. Sevellec, N.P. Holliday, G.D. McCarthy, A.L. New and J.J.-M. Hirschi "Insights into Decadal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Eddy-Permitting Coupled Climate Model", Journal of Climate 32, 6137-6161, 2019, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0709.1.
  37. Moffa‐Sánchez P., E. Moreno‐Chamarro, D.J. Reynolds, P. Ortega, L. Cunningham, D. Swingedouw, D.E. Amrhein, J. Halfar, L. Jonkers, J.H. Jungclaus and K. Perner "Variability in the Northern North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Across the Last Two Millennia: A Review", Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34, 1399-1436, 2019, doi: 10.1029/2018PA003508
  38. Acosta-Navarro J.C., P. Ortega, J. García-Serrano, V. Guemas, E. Tourigny, R. Cruz-García, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes "December 2016: Linking the lowest Arctic sea-ice extent on record with the lowest European precipitation event on record", BAMS 100, Explaining Extreme Events of 2017, S43-S48, 2019, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0097.1.
  39. Thornalley D., D. Oppo, P. Ortega, J. Robson, C. Brierley, R. Davis, I. Hall, L. Keigwin, P. Moffa- Sanchez, N. Rose, P. Spooner and I. Yashayaev "Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years", Nature 556, 227-230, 2018, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0007-4.
  40. Alexander-Turner R., P. Ortega, J. Robson "How robust are the surface temperature fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on monthly time-scales?" Geophysical Research Letters 45, 3559-3567, 2018, doi:10.1029/2017GL076759
  41. Swingedouw D., J. Mignot, P. Ortega, M. Khodri, M. Menegoz, C. Cassou, V. Hanquiez, “Impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the main climate variability modes”, Global and Planetary Change, 150, 24-45, 2017, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.01.006.
  42. Ortega P., E. Guilyardi, D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot and S. Nguyen, “Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: A perfect model approach”, Climate Dynamics 49, 3425–3441, 2017, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3521-4.
  43. Guillet S., C. Corona, M. Stoffel, M. Khodri, F. Lavigne, P. Ortega, N. Eckert, P.D. Sielenou, V. Daux, O.V. Churakova (Sidorova), N. Davi, J.-L. Edouard, Y, Zhang, B. H. Luckman, V. S. Myglan, J. Guiot, M. Beniston, V. Masson-Delmotte and C. Oppenheimer, “Climate response to the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records”; Nature Geoscience 10,123-128, 2017, doi:10.1038/ngeo2875.
  44. Hawkins E., P. Ortega, E. Suckling, A. Schurer, G. Hegerl, P. Jones, M. Joshi, T.J. Osborn, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Mignot, P. Thorne and G.J. van Oldenborgh, “ Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period”; BAMS 98, 1841-1856, 2017, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1.​
  45. Ortega P., J. Robson, R. Sutton and M. Andrews, “ Mechanisms of decadal variability in the Labrador Sea and the wider North Atlantic in a high-resolution climate model”, Climate Dynamics 49, 2625–2647, 2017, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3467-y.
  46. Moreno-Chamarro E., P. Ortega, F. González-Rouco and M. Montoya, “Assessing reconstruction techniques of the Atlantic Ocean circulation variability during the last millennium”; Climate Dynamics 48799819, 2017, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3111-x.
  47. Robson J., P. Ortega and R. Sutton, “A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005”; Nature Geoscience 9, 513-517, 2016, doi:10.1038/ngeo2727.
  48. Bolliet T., P. Brockmann, V. Masson-Delmotte, F. Bassinot, V. Daux, D. Genty, A. Landais, M. Lavrieux, E. Michel, P. Ortega, C. Risi, D.M. Roche, F Vimeux and C. Waelbroeck, “Water and carbon stable isotope records from natural archives: a new database and interactive online platform for data browsing, visualizing and downloading”; Climate of the Past 12, 1693-1719, 2016, doi:10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016.
  49. Mignot J., J. García-Serrano, D. Swingedouw, A. Germe, S. Nguyen, E. Guilyardi, P. Ortega and S. Ray, “Decadal predictability skill in the ocean with surface nudging”; Climate Dynamics 47, 1225-1246, 2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2898-1.
  50. Masson-Delmotte V., H.C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B.M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A.E. Sveinbjornsdottir, J.E .Box, S.Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, H. Gudlaugsdottir and J.W.C. White, “Recent changes in North West Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past temperature reconstructions”. The Cryosphere 9, 1481-1504, 2015, doi: 10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015.
  51. Ortega P., J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, F. Sevellec and E. Guilyardi, “Reconciling two alternative mechanisms behind bi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic”. , Progress in Oceanography  49, 3425–3441, 2017, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3521-4.
  52. Ortega P., F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Raible, M. Casado and P. Yiou, “A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium”. Nature 523, 71-74, 2015, doi: 10.1038/nature14518.
  53. Zanchettin D., O. Bothe, F. Lehner, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw and J. Jungclaus, “Reconciling reconstructed and simulated features of the winter Pacific-North-American pattern in the early 19th century”. Climate of the Past 11, 939-958, 2015, doi: 10.5194/cp-11-939-2015.
  54. Swingedouw D., P. Ortega, J. Mignot, E. Guilyardi, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. G. Butler and M. Khodri, “Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions”. Nature Communications 6, 6545, 2015, doi: 10.1038/ncomms7545.
  55. Ortega P., D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, B. Vinther, P. Yiou, R. Vautard and K. Yoshimura, “Characterising the atmospheric signals in Greenland ice cores: insights from the weather regime approach”. Climate Dynamics 43, pp 2585-2605, 2014, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2074-z.
  56. Casado M., P. Ortega, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Swingedouw, V. Daux, D. Genty, F. Maignan, O. Solomina, B. Vinther, N. Viovy, and P. Yiou, “Impact of precipitation intermittency on NAO-temperature signals in proxy records”, Climate of the Past 9, 871-886, 2013, doi: 10.5194/cp-9-871-2013.
  57. Ortega, P., J. F. González-Rouco, M. Montoya and H. Beltrami, “Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium – an assessment with the ECHO-g Model”, Climate of the Past 9, 547-565, 2013, doi: 10.5194/cp-9-547-2013.
  58. Ortega, P., M. Montoya, J. F. González-Rouco, J. Mignot and S. Legutke, “Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios”, Climate Dynamics 38, 1925-1947, 2012 doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1081-6.
  59. Ortega, P., E. Hawkins and R. T. Sutton, “Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a coupled GCM”, Climate Dynamics 37, 1771–1782, 2011, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1.


  • Ortega P., F. López Martí, J. Acosta Navarro, S. Wild and M. Donat "Climate impacts of the record-breaking Arctic Sea Ice minima in early spring 2018", Observing the Arctic, Technologies and methods demonstrated in the H2020 INTAROS project, 2022.
  • Exarchou E., P. Ortega, B. Rodríguez de Fonseca, T. Losada, I. Polo, C. Prodhomme, "Improved Atlantic variability enhances ENSO prediction skill", CLIVAR Exchanges 80, 32-35, 2021, doi: 10.36071/clivar.80.2021
  • Octenjak S., D. Bojovic, M. Terrado, F. López Martí, P. Ortega, J. Acosta, M. Donat & V. Torralba, "How did Arctic sea ice affect energy production in Europe in 2018?", APPLICATE Case Studies, 2019.
  • Terrado M., D. Bojovic, I. Christel, J. Acosta, P. Ortega, M. Donat, L. Lledó, H. Jóhannsson, T. Jung, "How does Arctic sea ice affect energy production in midlatitudes? ", APPLICATE Case Studies, 2019.
  • Hernández A., B. Martrat, L. Comas-Bru, C. Martin-Puertas, P. Moffa-Sánchez, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega and D. Swingedouw, "Climatic modes of variability over the Holocene: Model-data synergies to improve future projections", PAGES Magazine 27, pp 89, 2019.
  • Ortega P. and M. Donat, "CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop", GEWEX News, Quarter 2, pp 10, 2019.
  • Bojovic D., R. Bilbao, L.B. Díaz, M. Donat, P. Ortega, Y. Ruprich-Robert, B. Solaraju-Murali, M. Terrado, D. Verfaillie and F.J. Doblas-Reyes, "The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps", BAMS 100, ES255–ES259, 2019, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0190.1
  • Killbourne H., M. Klockmann, E. Moreno-Chamarro, P. Ortega, A. Romanou, M. Srokosz, Z. Szuts, K. Thirumalai, I. Hall, P. Heimbach, D. Oppo, A. Schmittner and R. Zhang, "Connecting paleo and modern oceanographic data to understand AMOC over decades to centuries", US CLIVAR Workshop Report 2017-3, pp. 1 - 30, 2017.
  • Ortega P., “Atmospheric science: Clouding the warming”; Nature Geoscience 9, 567–568, 2016, doi:10.1038/ngeo2758.
  • Ortega P., J. Robson, P. Moffa-Sanchez, D. Thornalley and D. Swingedouw, “A last millennium perspective on North Atlantic variability: exploiting synergies between models and proxy data”, Joint Issue of Clivar Exchanges/Past Global Changes Magazine 72, 61-67, 2017.
  • Goosse H., F. Klein, D. Swingedouw and P. Ortega, “Internal and forced decadal variability: lessons from the past millennium”, Joint Issue of Clivar Exchanges/Past Global Changes Magazine 72, 47-51, 2017.
  • H. Gallée, P. Ortega and H. Christian Steen-Larsen, “Rôle de la circulation atmosphérique de grande échelle”, Chapter 1.6 of the book Groenland : climat, ecologie et societe, CNRS éditions, 03/10/2016.
  • Ribes A. and P. Ortega, “Variabilité et changement du climat du Groenland au cours des deux cents dernières années”, Chapter 1.7 of the book Groenland : climat, ecologie et societe, CNRS éditions, 03/10/2016.
  • Masson-Delmotte V., P. Ortega and E. Gauthier, “Greater knowledge, better climate”, International Innovation 169, 59-61.