ASPECT: Adaptation-oriented Seamless Predictions of European ClimaTe

Status: Active Start:

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ASPECT aims to setup and demonstrate a seamless climate information (SCI) system with a time horizon up to 30yr and accompanied with underlying research and using climate information for sectoral applications ( middle-ground level 1). The project's goal is to improve existing climate prediction systems and to merge their outputs across timescales together with climate projections to unify a SCI as a standard for sectoral decision-making.

The project focus will be on European climate information, but we will also look where there is a wider policy interest (e.g., disaster preparedness) and in regions of European interest. We will maintain a strong link with the WCRP lighthouse activitiesto to exploit learning for explaining and predicting earth system change. To provide a bandwidth diversity of information, the SCI system will be based on multi-model climate forecasts and will build on learning from projects such as EUCP. It will align with new activities on Digital Twins within Europe, including DestinE. The SCI will combine physical science aspects with those from other disciplines to ensure the information is robust, reliable and relevant for a range of user-driven decision cases. The information package will incorporate baseline forecasts and projections (plus uncertainty), and will explore new frontiers (e.g., extremes which are of socioeconomic high-level interest).

To ensure success, the research will encompass: an uderstanding and attribution of various processes along  timescales (such as exploring signal-to-noise ratio) and their impact on predictability, new ways of initialisation of the prediction systems, merging predictions with projections, provision of regional SCI for Europe by downscaling (statistical methods, AI) and HighRes models (including convection-permitting models) and innovative post-processing method enhancing the skill and robustness of the climate forecasts.