Better seasonal forecasts can help the transition to renewable energy

18 February 2020

BSC researcher Ilaria Vigo is one of the authors of a comment published today in Nature Energy.

The transition to renewable energy makes it more important for power producers to get accurate information about the weather that is to come. Climate scientists are currently investing considerable effort and resources to help them get better long-term forecasts.

Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) is coordinating the H2020 S2S4E project. The main objective of S2S4E is to make the European energy sector more resilient to climate variability and high impact events by exploring the frontiers of what can be achieved by using S2S predictions. To do so, S2S4E has brought together scientist, social scientists and energy companies to co-develop an operational climate prediction system for the renewable energy sector, named Decision Support Tool.

BSC is coordinating the research, the development of the Decision Support Tool (currently operational but under improvements until the end of the project) as well as the impact assessment of the information delivered by the tool on renewable energy decision-making.

The BSC researcher Ilaria Vigo, Environmental Economist, is involved in the project and is one of the authors of a comment for Nature Energy where she is explaining some of the potential impacts of the research done at BSC on the renewable energy sector.

Vigo states: “We have been developing this Climate Service with the aim to make the energy sector more resilient to climate variability and high impact events. Now we are working with renewable energy producers to integrate this information in their risk management practices and evaluate the impacts”. The BSC researcher adds: “Clean energy transition, supported by increased investments in renewable energy (RE), is pivotal to reach climate neutrality by 2050. However, climate change increases climate variability, raising the risks associated to the intermittent nature of RE sources”.

According to Ilaria Vigo, climate predictions can be integrated in decision-making (e.g. resource management, operations, hedging), therefore increasing revenue security and ultimately the attractiveness of RE investments.

Read the comment in Nature Energy here.

Read the CICERO press release here.


  • This video of the S2S4E Project explains how is it possible to forecast the weather on the long run, especially when you cannot rely on past climatology patterns due to climate change. These forecasts can benefit renewable energies making them more prepared for climate change and extreme events.