Roberto Fernandez Bilbao

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I am an early career climate scientist interested in understanding decadal climate variations, the mechanisms and external factors that drive them and how they all control the predictability of the climate system.


  • 2017: Ph.D. in Science: Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate, University of Reading (Reading, UK), Ph.D. dissertation title: Externally Forced Changes in Ocean Temperature and Sea Level. Supervison: Prof. Jonathan Gregory, Dr. Nathaelle Bouttes, Dr. Matthew Palmer and Dr. Peter Stott.
  • 2011: MSci in Meteorology and Oceanography, University of East Anglia (Norwich, UK).


On-going activities:

  • CONFESS (H2020)
  • WMO Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction


  • Hermanson, L., D. Smith, M. Seabrook, et al. (2022). WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A prediction for 2021-2025. BAMS. Accepted.
  • Volpi D, Meccia VL, Guemas V, Ortega P, Bilbao R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Amaral A, Echevarria P, Mahmood R and Corti S (2021) A Novel Initialization Technique for Decadal Climate Predictions. Front. Clim. 3: 681127. doi: 10.3389/fclim. 2021.681127
  • Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega et al. (2021). Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth. Earth Systems Dynamics, doi:10.5194/esd-2020-66. Open Access
  • Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado, E. Dutra (2021). Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model. Climate Dynamics. Open Access
  • Smith, D.M., A.A. Scaife, R. Eade, et al. (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583, 796-800, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0.
  • Hermanson, L., R. Bilbao, N. Dunstone, et al. (2020). Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2019JD031739 Open Access
  • Merryfield, W., J. Baehr, L. Batté et al. (2020). Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. BAMS 101, E869-896, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1 Open Access
  • Bilbao, R., J.M. Gregory, N. Bouttes, M.D. Palmer, P. Stott (2019). Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal, vertical and geographical structure. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04910-1. Open Access
  • Bojovic, D., Bilbao, R., Díaz, L. B., Donat, M., Ortega, P., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Solaraju-Murali, B., Terrado, M., Verfaillie, D., & Doblas-Reyes, F. (2019). The Biggest Unknowns Related to Decadal Prediction: What 50 Experts Think Are the 5 Major Knowledge Gaps, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(10), ES255-ES259.
  • Ménégoz, M., R. Bilbao, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas, FJ Doblas-Reyes (2018). Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 064022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac4db. Open Access
  • Smith, D.M., A.A. Scaife, E. Hawkins et al., (2018). Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5ºC. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11895-11903, doi:10.1029/2018GL079362. Open Access
  • Bilbao, R., J.M. Gregory, N. Bouttes (2015). Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z. Open Access.