Wind energy

Weather and climate are strongly linked to the energy market. They constantly affect energy supply and demand. Having in advance accurate information on how weather and climate will be in the future, can lead to better results for your company. We are a trusted advisor and partner for users and investors in the wind energy sector, providing short term forecasts, climate predictions and long term climate projections of the availability of the wind resource, which is directly linked to the energy production of wind farms. Our predictions are based on cutting-edge climate modelling and provide the most robust climate information currently available worldwide. The provided information support stakeholders in the wind energy sector to take more informed decisions allowing them to save time and money.

Each actor within the wind energy sector has specific requirements for climate information. Current energy production and distribution systems are designed to respond to weather variability, such as daily changes in wind speed that affect the total energy load, or rapid changes in renewable resource availability that affect the energy supply. Short term forecasts are normally associated to the operational phase of a wind farm and are useful for:

  • Predicting sudden events like ramps that can be managed by turbine and wind farm control
  • Power system management performed by transmission system operators (scheduling, reserves planning, congestion management)
  • Trading in the energy market
  • Operation and maintenance planning of wind farms

 

The tools used by energy users and energy traders to predict, evaluate and optimise response strategies in the near term are already well established. However, they are less rough for longer term planning, for which a retrospective approach has been adopted (approach based on the climatology, for example the average conditions for the last 30 years). In this context, seasonal predictions represent an alternative to a retrospective approach for the renewable energy sector. Unlike a climatology-based approach, seasonal prediction have the potential to predict climate phenomena that have not occurred in the past, such as climate extremes. Climate predictions present many potential applications:

  • Mid-term operations and maintenance planning
  • Energy trading and electricity prices
  • Cash flow anticipation
  • Meet the balance between supply and demand
  • Maximisation of grid integration
  • Support decisions about reserve energy sources
  • Portfolio modelling
  • Offshore wind farm servicing logistics
 

Decadal wind speed predictions are specially useful in the pre-construction phase of wind farm development. They are relevant to understand and quantify the wind resource, i.e. inform wind energy investors about the volatility of the resource in the future and how this risk is having impacts on the return on investment. Some of the potential applications of these predictions are:

  • Long term cash flow anticipation
  • Decision support about reserve energy sources
  • Portfolio modelling

 

The availability of information about the response of wind resources to climate change is important for the wind energy sector. Climate projections that extend further into the future than climate predictions, i.e. from decades up to centuries, have applications during the prospecting phase of wind farm development:

  • Site selection
  • Pre- and post-construction assessments of wind farms

 

 

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